Elon Musk has answered on Reddit under u/ElonMuskOfficial: two AMAs of his own — the night before the first drone-ship landing in 2015, and after the ITS presentation in 2016 — plus the Starlink team's AMA in 2020. Every answer is here, with the question that prompted it.
r/Starlink··u/DishyMcFlatface
Reddit AMA — the Starlink team, with Elon Musk (r/Starlink, 2020)
The AMA was run by the Starlink engineering team (under the u/DishyMcFlatface account, named after the user terminal) three weeks after the public beta opened in the northern United States. Musk himself answered only twice, but the first answer is the earliest public confirmation from him that the optical inter-satellite links — the “space lasers” that let satellites relay traffic to each other instead of via a ground station — were real and coming.
Any updates about the space lasers? How much better can the latency be with them? How much better can transcontinental connections be with them? When will real world testing begin?
EElon MuskOP
Did you say space lasers? https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ykL-iMtpV50
Reddit AMA — “Ask me anything about becoming a spacefaring civ” (r/spacex, 2016)
Musk opened the thread himself on 23 October 2016 and answered fifteen questions in a little over an hour, almost all of them technical and asked by people who had studied the IAC slides closely. The exchange is the most detailed public account of the ITS design between the Guadalajara presentation and its 2017 revision: the spherical header tanks holding the landing propellant, the full-scale carbon-fibre tank about to be pressure-tested on a barge, split body flaps for an Earth entry that had not been shown at the IAC, the oxidation problem in an oxygen-rich turbopump running at 300 bar, load limits of about 5 g for the ship and 20 g for the booster, and a Mars sequence that starts with Dragon scouting missions and a ship named Heart of Gold carrying nothing but a propellant plant. Along the way he renames the vehicle in public for the first time.
What equipment and procedures will be required for refueling operations on Mars? Will they be designed to function autonomously for the initial unmanned test flight? Also, are there any plans to introduce a third variant of the ITS with just a large shuttle-like payload bay to allow for transporting bulkier cargo?
EElon MuskOP
We are still far from figuring this out in detail, but the current plan is: 1. Send Dragon scouting missions, initially just to make sure we know how to land without adding a crater and then to figure out the best way to get water for the CH4/O2 Sabatier Reaction. 2. Heart of Gold spaceship flies to Mars loaded only with equipment to build the propellant plant. 3. First crewed mission with equipment to build rudimentary base and complete the propellant plant. 4. Try to double the number of flights with each Earth-Mars orbital rendezvous, which is every 26 months, until the city can grow by itself.
As a follow-up, considering the synodal reuse of the ITS spaceships, what form of permanent habitation do you foresee? Shipped modules or an (eventual) shift to in-situ resource utilization such as Martian regolith/plastic-reinforced concrete structures?
EElon MuskOP
Initially, glass panes with carbon fiber frames to build geodesic domes on the surface, plus a lot of miner/tunneling droids. With the latter, you can build out a huge amount of pressurized space for industrial operations and leave the glass domes for green living space.
Hi Elon, ITS question: What SpaceX technology/material still requires the most development for ITS to be a success? Thank you!
EElon MuskOP
It used to be developing a new metal alloy that is extremely resistant to oxidation for the hot oxygen-rich turbopump, which is operating at insane pressure to feed a 300 bar main chamber. Anything that can burn, will burn. We seem to have that under control, as the Raptor turbopump didn't show erosion in the test firings, but there is still room for optimization. Biggest question right now is sealing the carbon fiber tanks against cryo propellant with hot autogenous pressurization. The oxygen tank also has an oxidation risk problem as it is pressurized with pure, hot oxygen. Will almost certainly need to apply an inert layer of some kind. Hopefully, something that can be sprayed. If need be, will use thin sheets of invar welded together on the inside.
Hi Elon, and many thanks for doing this today! What level of completion is the interior habitable area layout of ITS at, and when might we expect to see renderings of it?
EElon MuskOP
I think we need a new name. ITS just isn't working. I'm using BFR and BFS for the rocket and spaceship, which is fine internally, but... Will aim to release details of the habitation section when we have actual live mockups. Maybe in a year or two.
Probably just pack the pressurized space with cargo. Early missions will be heavily weighted towards cargo. First crewed mission would have about a dozen people, as the goal will be to build out and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system.
Hi Elon. I've got 3 questions on the ITS vehicle specs: Can you divulge what the Vacuum Thrust+Isp figures are for the Sea-Level Raptor variant? The ITS booster is able to hover. Will it ever use this capability to better ensure a successful landing at the expense of some small gravity losses, or is it hoverslams all the way? What is the expected maximum acceleration that the ITS booster can withstand during entry/landing? Thanks for everything.
EElon MuskOP
- Approx 360 sec vacuum Isp and 290 metric tons of thrust - A high acceleration landing is a lot more efficient, so there wouldn't be any hovering unless it encountered a problem or unexpected wind conditions. A rocket that lands slowly is wasting a lot of fuel. - Aiming for 20 g's
If I recall correctly on one of the slides it mentioned that there it will be 4-6 G's upon reentry. It does not specify, however, whether that will be during the landing burn or aerobraking. It would be nice if that is clarified as well.
EElon MuskOP
The spaceship would be limited to around 5 g's nominal, but able to take peak loads 2 to 3 times higher without breaking up. Booster would be nominal of 20 and maybe 30 to 40 without breaking up.
We got a pretty good idea of what a Mars EDL looks like, but can you explain how the ITS and the Tanker plan to do an Earth EDL? Having talked with you at IAC about the Mars entry, we learned that there's very powerful thrusters that can handle attitude control. These work great for the Martian atmosphere, but what about on Earth? There doesn't appear to be grid fins and the thrusters obviously have less authority here on Earth, so what's the trick?
EElon MuskOP
Good question -- that wasn't shown at IAC. The spaceship and tanker would have split body flaps for pitch and roll. Probably just use the attitude control thrusters for yaw.
I think one of the most shocking things in your ITS presentation for many people was the full size carbon fiber tank SpaceX built. Can you tell us a little bit more about the design, construction, and role of that particular test article?
EElon MuskOP
Yeah, for those that know their stuff, that was really the big news :) The flight tank will actually be slightly longer than the development tank shown, but the same diameter. That was built with latest and greatest carbon fiber prepreg. In theory, it should hold cryogenic propellant without leaking and without a sealing linker. Early tests are promising. Will take it up to 2/3 of burst pressure on an ocean barge in the coming weeks.
Overall is the landing architecture of the ITS booster and the distances to be covered the same as Falcon 9's? Boostback, re-entry burn, landing burn? Could you give us nuggets on what changes the “final” Falcon 9 version (“v1.3”) you mentioned will have? Gwynne mentioned two weeks ago that F9 v1.2 will be reused only once or twice while “v1.3” should be reused up to 10 times. Can you talk about what the limiting factors for Falcon 9 reuse are?
EElon MuskOP
The big booster will have an easier time of things than Falcon, as the mass ratio of the stages is lower and it will have lower density. Net result is that it won't come in quite as hot and fast as Falcon, so Falcon should be a bounding case on the big booster. Final Falcon 9 has a lot of minor refinements that collectively are important, but uprated thrust and improved legs are the most significant. Actually, I think the F9 boosters could be used almost indefinitely, so long as there is scheduled maintenance and careful inspections. Falcon 9 Block 5 -- the final version in the series -- is the one that has the most performance and is designed for easy reuse, so it just makes sense to focus on that long term and retire the earlier versions. Block 5 starts production in about 3 months and initial flight is in 6 to 8 months, so there isn't much point in ground testing Block 3 or 4 much beyond a few reflights.
ITS Spaceship design question: the ITS Spaceship has two mystical spherical tanks. The whole tank design looks very exciting, and there's rampant speculation on this sub about the purpose of those spherical tanks: are they for landing fuel? Or are they storing “hot” gaseous propellants as part of the autogenous propellant pressurization system? Or are they used for on-orbit propellant densification to store vapor before it's liquefied again? All of the above perhaps?
EElon MuskOP
Those are the header tanks that contain the landing propellant. They are separate in order to have greater insulation and minimize boil-off, avoid sloshing on entry and not have to press up the whole main tank.
ITS Booster engine placement design question: the tight cluster of 42 engines of the ITS Booster (cool number!) has created speculation on this sub that maybe they are packed so tightly because that way there's a “virtual nozzle” or “virtual aerospike” effect they can take advantage of: they can have shorter nozzles while most of the exhaust momentum of the inner engines is still axial. Is there any truth to this speculation, or is the tight packing done purely to scale up liftoff thrust-to-weight?
EElon MuskOP
It had to be 42 for important scientific and fictional reasons! The dense packing is just to max out thrust to weight, but it would be cool if there was a virtual nozzle side effect.
ITS Spaceship capabilities question: according to your IAC presentation the ITS Spaceship has a Δv budget of 7.5 km/s when returning from Mars to Earth, with 150 tons of payload. With a much smaller payload it has a Δv budget in excess of 9.0 km/s — which is amazing! Could this unprecedented amount of Δv be used to fly between Mars and Earth even outside the launch windows enforced by the synodic period, when payload mass is not a primary factor? It could be used for emergency purposes such as medical supplies/instruments and experts, or for other high priority but low mass cargo like critical replacements.
Reddit AMA — “I am Elon Musk, CEO/CTO of a rocket company” (r/IAmA, 2015)
Posted from Cape Canaveral at 10:17 p.m. local time, hours before the CRS-5 launch and the first drone-ship landing attempt, the thread drew more than ten thousand comments; Musk answered twenty-six of them before leaving to prepare for the launch. The technical answers cover the grid fins (“our atmosphere is like molasses at Mach 4”), the sub-cooled propellant that would push the Falcon 9 upper stage to roughly 97 % propellant by mass, the decision to abandon second-stage reuse in favour of the Mars system, a single monster booster instead of a scaled-up Falcon Heavy, and 100 tonnes of useful payload to the Martian surface. He also put the famous 50 % landing odds in perspective — “I pretty much made that up” — named Kerbal Space Program as SpaceX's testing software, and answered questions about sleep, showers, teaching and Churchill.
Hi Elon, I'll leave the technical questions to the experts. 1) Do you plan on getting any sleep tonight and 2) how will you celebrate if the test is successful? Best of luck!
EElon MuskOP
Yes, but probably only a few hours Party at Cocoa Beach!
Has the Raptor engine changed in its target thrust since the last number we have officially heard of 1.55 Mlbf sea-level thrust?
EElon MuskOP
Thrust to weight is optimizing for a surprisingly low thrust level, even when accounting for the added mass of plumbing and structure for many engines. Looks like a little over 230 metric tons (~500 klbf) of thrust per engine, but we will have a lot of them :)
[question deleted by its author — it asked about the Falcon Heavy centre core recovery, the Mars transport system, and the SpaceX spacesuit]
EElon MuskOP
1. Yes, the Falcon Heavy center core is seriously hauling a** at stage separation. We can bring it back to the launch site, but the boost back penalty is significant. If we also have to do the plane change for geo missions from Cape inclination (28.5 deg) to equatorial, then a downrange platform landing is needed. 2. The Mars transport system will be a completely new architecture. Am hoping to present that towards the end of this year. Good thing we didn't do it sooner, as we have learned a huge amount from Falcon and Dragon. 3. Our spacesuit design is finally coming together and will also be unveiled later this year. We are putting a lot of effort into design esthetics, not just utility. It needs to both look like a 21st century spacesuit and work well. Really difficult to achieve both.
Question about the Mars Colonial Transporter: there has been a lot of speculation over exactly how much mass you are hoping to send to the Martian surface with the MCT. Can you tell us how much cargo you would like to be able to land on Mars with MCT, not including the mass of the MCT itself?
EElon MuskOP
Goal is 100 metric tons of useful payload to the surface of Mars. This obviously requires a very big spaceship and booster system.
In order to use the full MCT design (100 passengers), will BFR be one core or 3 cores?
EElon MuskOP
At first, I was thinking we would just scale up Falcon Heavy, but it looks like it probably makes more sense just to have a single monster boost stage.
Hello Mr. Musk, I sold you a pair of hiking boots at the Sports Authority Elite in Corte Madera. I just wanted to know how your walk through the forest (as you described it) went? Also did you like the boots?
Emily Shanklin indicated in late 2013 that the Raptor would be the first of a “family of engines” designed for the exploration and colonization of Mars. Could you elaborate on her wording — was she simply referring to a vacuum version and a standard version, or do you plan on building multiple methane-based engines with significantly different thrust and size specifications?
EElon MuskOP
Default plan is to have a sea level and vacuum version of Raptor, much like Merlin. Since the booster and spaceship will both have multiple engines, we don't have to have fundamentally different designs. This plan might change.
Mr Musk, how will you secure the first stage of the Falcon 9 to the barge when it lands? Gravity or some mechanism?
EElon MuskOP
Mostly gravity. The center of gravity is pretty low for the booster, as all the engines and residual propellant is at the bottom. We are going to weld steel shoes over the landing feet as a precautionary measure.
Previously, you've stated that you estimate a 50% probability of success with the attempted landing on the automated spaceport drone ship tomorrow. Can you discuss the factors that were considered to make that estimation? In addition, can you talk more about the grid fins that will be flying tomorrow? How do they compare to maneuvering with cold-gas thrusters?
EElon MuskOP
I pretty much made that up. I have no idea :) The grid fins are super important for landing with precision. The aerodynamic forces are way too strong for the nitrogen thrusters. In particular, achieving pitch trim is hopeless. Our atmosphere is like molasses at Mach 4!
SpaceX's current strategy revolves mostly around old style rockets, even if they are now approaching complete reusability (Grasshopper rocks). Has SpaceX looked into hybrid craft like the SABRE programme happening in the UK, or looked into the possibility of a space elevator (even at a thought-experiment stage) in the way that Google and NASA have done?
EElon MuskOP
If you want to get to orbit or beyond, go with pure rockets. It is not like Von Braun and Korolev didn't know about airplanes and they were really smart dudes.
Hi Elon. A friend of mine is all paranoid about the computer singularity, and used your name as a source of his paranoia. Don't you think it could all be a bunch of hype?
EElon MuskOP
The timeframe is not immediate, but we should be concerned. There needs to be a lot more work on AI safety. And, with all due respect to the Roomba dude, that is not a concern https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Of2HU3LGdbo
In your recent MIT talk, you mentioned that you didn't think second-stage recovery was possible for the Falcon 9 — due to the low fuel efficiency of kerosene and the high velocities needed for many payloads. However, you also said that full reusability would be possible for the Mars Colonial Transporter launch vehicle. What have you learned from flights of Falcon 9 that taught you (a) that reuse of its second stage won't be possible and (b) what you'll need to do differently with MCT to reuse its second stage?
EElon MuskOP
Actually, we could make the 2nd stage of Falcon reusable and still have significant payload on Falcon Heavy, but I think our engineering resources are better spent moving on to the Mars system. MCT will have meaningfully higher specific impulse engines: 380 vs 345 vac Isp. For those unfamiliar, in the rocket world, that is a super gigantic difference for stages of roughly equivalent mass ratio (mass full to mass empty).
[The asker later replaced the text of this question. It originally asked how Elon had been able to learn enough to run both Tesla and SpaceX, two engineering-intensive companies, at the same time.]
EElon MuskOP
I do kinda feel like my head is full! My context switching penalty is high and my process isolation is not what it used to be. Frankly, though, I think most people can learn a lot more than they think they can. They sell themselves short without trying. One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to.
I'm a teacher, and I always wonder what I can do to help my students achieve big things. What's something your teachers did for you while you were in school that helped to encourage your ideas and thinking? Or, if they didn't, what's something they could have done better?
EElon MuskOP
The best teacher I ever had was my elementary school principal. Our math teacher quit for some reason and he decided to sub in himself for math and accelerate the syllabus by a year. We had to work like the house was on fire for the first half of the lesson and do extra homework, but then we got to hear stories of when he was a soldier in WWII. If you didn't do the work, you didn't get to hear the stories. Everybody did the work.
The design life of the Merlin 1D has been mentioned to be 40 “cycles”. Could you expand on what a “cycle” is? Is it just a start of the engine?
EElon MuskOP
There is no meaningful limit. We would have to replace a few parts that experience thermal stress after 40 cycles, but the rest of the engine would be fine.
What kind of mass ratio do your upper stages have?
EElon MuskOP
With sub-cooled propellant, I think we can get the Falcon 9 upper stage mass ratio (excluding payload) to somewhere between 25 and 30. Another way of saying that is the upper stage would be close to 97% propellant by mass.
1) What is your favorite airplane? 2) What is your favorite video game? 3) What is your favorite food? 4) If you consume alcohol, what is your favorite alcoholic drink?
EElon MuskOP
SR-71 Hard to pick a favorite. I tend to like FPS with a story, like Bioshock, Fallout or Mass Effect, but was also a big fan of Civ and Warcraft. French and BBQ Whiskey
Hi Elon, I currently work for Toyota Tsusho in Fremont doing the wheel assembly for Tesla. My question: you seem to have had to deal with a tremendous amount of adversity in a few of your ventures. Do you have any advice for those dealing with seemingly insurmountable adversity?
EElon MuskOP
There is a great quote by Churchill: "If you're going through hell, keep going."